WHAT’S INSIDE

Top Signals: AI stocks shed $5T, OpenAI cuts funding target, & Anthropic faces junk-rating risk

Big Movers: Alphabet loses $482B, Amazon misses, Microsoft Azure grows 48%, & Intel falls 20%

Open Deals: Cognition eyes $70–80B valuation, Fluidstack $40B, Baseten $30B, & OpenAI $20B raise

Mega Rounds: Cohere targets CAD $7B, FuriosaAI $620M, Serval $150M, & Dulo $130M

Exit Watching: DoorDash–Instacart $17B deal, Kroger–Giant Eagle $1.65B bid, & Jio’s $3.2B IPO

The Funding Buzz: RedBird–Sound Ventures’ $1B plan, BY Venture $60M fund, & U&I Ventures $32.2M debut fund

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH CELONIS

AI & The Rise of Intelligent Operations

Having driven over $2 billion in revenue for Microsoft AI, Noelle Russell shares how to build trust and inclusion as you look to responsibly scale AI.

TOP SIGNAL ALERTS

The hottest Signals & News To Watch This Week

The AI Selloff Is a Test of Who Can Still Borrow

The AI selloff is a financing test more than a stock-market panic. AI and chip stocks have shed about $5T since Oct. 6, while the other 625 large US stocks gained roughly $1.3T. Over the next two weeks the midterms, Nvidia earnings, Iran talks, and Anthropic's record IPO all land together, right as OpenAI and the neoclouds find cheap capital harder to raise.

Why It Matters: The damage is narrow, and that is the point. When the pain concentrates in credit rather than spreading across the market, the question stops being "is AI overvalued" and becomes "who gets funded and at what price." For founders and VCs, the cost of AI money is being reset in real time, and the weakest links reprice first.

Key Alerts To Watch This Week

Lenders Set the Price — OpenAI now seeks about $20B at a $1.25T valuation, down from $30B at $1.4T, with less than half committed. CoreWeave bonds that carry a 9.75% coupon now yield above 15% in the secondary market, and Lambda cut its target from $14.5B to $13B after Coatue and others passed. Pimco's Ivascyn says the bar for proving revenue keeps rising, and the weakest links get hit first.

Why It Matters: The era of cheap AI money is fading fast, and bankers warn the high-yield market is effectively closed to new neocloud issuance at these yields. Every late-stage AI round touching Q4 now gets marked against OpenAI's trim, not its old peak, which drags private valuations down the stack.

The Real Earnings Report — Anthropic is reportedly aiming for the week of Nov. 16, raising $100B+ at $1.5T to $2T, which would be the largest IPO on record. The numbers are strong, with $16.3B of first-half revenue and a first operating profit of $974M on $11.6B in Q2. But the FT reports Blackstone told investors to expect a BB-range junk rating rather than investment grade.

Why It Matters: Whatever price Anthropic gets sets the tone for every neocloud queued behind it. A strong debut reopens the funding window, a weak one or a delay slams it shut. The split between a real profit and a likely junk rating is the whole AI-financing debate in one filing.

Nvidia, Fed, Midterms — Nvidia reports later in November with no consensus figures yet. Options markets price only about a 0.9% S&P 500 move for the session after Tuesday's midterms, so traders rank earnings and the Middle East higher. Citi calls Senate control the key variable and flags governor races that decide AI data center permitting, while Susquehanna's Jacobson calls Iran de-escalation the wild card.

Why It Matters: Three market-moving events compete for attention in one fortnight, and the market may be mispricing which matters most. For real estate and infrastructure players, the governor races are the sleeper, since permitting decides where the data center buildout can actually happen.

Earnings Reports

Alphabet's Worst Day — Stock fell nearly 13% after Q3 earnings, erasing $482B in market value, second only to Nvidia's $593B; search revenue missed and free cash flow went negative.

Amazon Q3 Miss — Amazon missed Q3 estimates with $1.89 EPS vs. $1.97 expected and $201.9B revenue vs. $202.25B; AWS hit $45.9B, and the stock fell 9%+ after hours on Q4 guidance.

Microsoft Cloud Beat — Microsoft posted $18.6B free cash flow, beating the $8.54B estimate, as Azure grew 48% to $33.17B and Q2 growth was guided to 49-50%; shares rose 3%.

Intel Q4 Miss — Intel beat Q3 EPS ($0.52 vs $0.41) on $16.5B revenue, but guided Q4 to $15B-$16B vs $17B expected on weak PC sales; stock fell over 20% after hours.

Sandisk — The NAND flash maker, a key AI data center beneficiary, beat Q3 estimates with $11B revenue and $52.60 EPS, and announced an 8-for-1 stock split effective Nov. 19.

Big Movers

Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week

Constellation Energy — The nuclear operator in Maryland is getting $5B in DOE loans to add 1.1GW across 8 plants; Google, Amazon, and Meta have already bought most of the output.

Megaspeed — The Chinese Nvidia chip customer is at the center of a NYT report that US intelligence believes leader Alice Huang, tied to Jensen Huang, passed data to Beijing.

Jio's Blockbuster Debut — The Indian telecom and digital services giant, backed by Meta and Google, surged 21% in its debut after a record $3.2B IPO, hitting a $131.9B valuation.

Skydance — The studio, led by David Ellison, could draw $8B-$10B from SpaceX plus a global output deal, per John Malone's prediction. Nothing is confirmed; $80B net debt looms.

Anduril BlueChip — The California defense startup, founded by Palmer Luckey, unveiled a laptop built entirely from US-made parts with Qualcomm, at an estimated 3-5x price premium.

Moderna Falls — Shares of the Cambridge, MA mRNA drugmaker plunged after full data on its cancer vaccine, co-developed with Merck, leaked early, despite positive results.

OPEN DEALS

Open Funding Rounds or VC Fund Raises to watch this week

Cognition Eyes New Round — The California AI coding startup behind Devin is weighing a round at a $70B-$80B valuation, weeks after its $48B raise.

Fluidstack Round Pitched — Situational Awareness is pitching clients to co-invest in a round valuing the British neocloud startup Fluidstack at $40B, about 2x its value months ago.

Baseten Eyes $30B Valuation — The California AI inference startup Baseten is raising a round that would more than double its valuation to about $30B, in tranches at $26B and $30B.

OpenAI Cuts Round Target — OpenAI is raising about $20B at a $1.25T valuation, down $10B from its goal, with only $11B committed so far. MGX and Coatue are expected in.

IN THE MONEY

Companies that raised money in the past week and why they matter

Massive Deals

Cohere Series E — The Canadian sovereign AI firm closed an initial Series E targeting up to CAD $7B at a CAD $35.7B valuation, led by Schwarz Group, with Canada's government in.

FuriosaAI Raises $620M — The South Korean inference chip startup closed a Series D at a $2.9B valuation to scale production of energy-efficient AI processors.

Serval's $3B Round — The California AI service management startup raised $150M at a $3B valuation to bring its automation agents to HR and beyond IT.

Firehawk's $150M Series D — The Texas rocket motor and propellant maker raised $150M at a $1.4B valuation, led by Advent and Rochefort, to scale output.

Dulo's $130M Seed — The California startup, co-founded by Sebastian Thrun, is building AI foundation models for hardware design. Eric Schmidt, John Doerr, and DST Global joined.

Collective's $100M — The startup using AI to automate taxes and payroll for solo entrepreneurs raised $100M: a $40M Series B plus $60M from General Catalyst's Customer Value Fund.

BioGeometry Raises $100M — The Chinese AI drug-design startup closed over $100M in Series A funding led by China Life Capital to scale its GeoFlow and GeoCell models.

Bites — The Israeli frontline training platform Bites raised a $40M Series A led by PeakSpan Capital, with Vertex Ventures and Horizon Capital joining, lifting funding to $55M.

Large Deals

Wabi Hits $1.25B — The AI personal agent startup from Replika founder Eugenia Kuyda raised $55M at a $1.25B valuation, led by IVP with a16z, Forerunner, and Amazon Alexa Fund.

Infisical — The California secrets management startup raised a $40M Series B at a $600M valuation, led by Elad Gil, with Gradient and Y Combinator; total funding is nearly $60M.

Setara's $90M Series A — The neuroscience spinout from Jazz's $820M Actio buyout raised a $90M Series A for STAR-0871, a CMT2C drug; investors include Deerfield and Canaan.

Powerlattice — The Washington chip startup cutting AI processor power use by over half raised $86M, per an SEC filing, nearly 3x its prior $31M. Playground and Celesta back it.

Fragment's $56M Round — The AI startup automating procurement exceptions for large enterprises raised $56M, led by 8VC with General Catalyst and A*. Its agents resolve issues.

Broccoli AI — The California startup selling AI agents to plumbing, HVAC and electrical firms raised $52M across Series A and B, both led by Khosla Ventures, at a $300M valuation.

Opentrons Raises $40M — The New York lab automation robotics company closed a $40M Series E led by Avego, with BroadOak joining, to scale AI-native lab robots in 80+ countries.

Small Deals

Phonic raises $27.5M — The speech-to-speech startup, led by First Round, closed a $27.5M Series A and launched Phonic-1, which ranks #1 on the Artificial Analysis index.

Rendezvous Raises $20M — The Colorado startup building self-assembling spacecraft closed an oversubscribed $20M seed led by MaC Venture Capital and Toyota Ventures before a 2028 test.

Reflex Raises $14M — The AI startup builds custom business software for enterprises. Standard Capital led the $14M Series A, with Databricks Ventures joining. Total raised: $19M.

TrashLab Raises $12M — The startup building an AI-native operating system for waste haulers raised a $12M Series A led by Ventana to fund hiring and AI tools like its Haul-E agent.

Blue Arbor Raises $10.5M — The Michigan prosthetics startup closed a $10.5M Series A led by Ottobock to fund U.S. clinical studies for its RESTORE™ limb control system.

Birch Hill Raises $4M — The New York startup, founded by Goldman and BlackRock alumni, closed a $4M seed led by Multicoin Capital to bring U.S. farm and apartment loans onchain.

EXIT WATCHING

Mergers & Acquisitions and IPOs

Exit Watching

DoorDash Buys Instacart — DoorDash will acquire Instacart in a $17B deal to challenge Amazon and Walmart in grocery, adding 50K+ stores; close expected late 2027 or H1 2028.

Sandisk Earnings, Split — Sandisk beat estimates with $11B revenue (vs. $10.7B expected) and $52.60 EPS, guided Q2 to $12.2B-$12.6B, and announced an 8-for-1 stock split.

Kroger-Giant Eagle — Kroger's $1.65B bid for Pennsylvania grocer Giant Eagle could expand Flock camera surveillance and customer data for personalized pricing, AELP warns.

IPO Watch

Open or upcoming IPOs to watch:

AI's Cheap Money Dries Up — Blackstone says Anthropic may get only a junk rating post-IPO, while OpenAI cut its raise from $30B to $20B; CoreWeave bonds yield over 15%.

Closed IPOs

Jio's Blockbuster Debut — Jio Platforms, the Indian telecom unit backed by Meta and Google, surged 21% in its debut after a $3.2B IPO drew $77B in bids, valuing it at $131.9B.

Aspen's IPO — The California cell therapy startup Aspen Neuroscience raised $140.6M pricing shares at $15, the low end of its range, to advance its Parkinson's treatment.

THE FUNDING BUZZ

VC & PE Activity To Watch

Open Funds

Otherwise Fund VI — The California venture firm Otherwise is raising $50M for Fund VI under a 3(c)(7) exemption, up from the $40.2M Fund V. No investors are committed yet.

25Madison Fund II — The New York VC firm 25Madison Ventures is raising $50M for Fund II, per a Form D filing. The fund is pre-first close, with Steven Price as managing member.

Closed Funds

RedBird + Sound Ventures — RedBird and Guy Oseary's Sound Ventures will jointly invest up to $1B in platforms where tech, media and culture converge, with AI input from RedBird X.

BY Venture's $60M Fund III — The Dubai VC closed a $60M Fund III, anchored by Dubai Future District Fund, to back AI-native startups from Pre-Seed to Series A, with a Lisbon hub.

U&I Ventures' $32.2M Fund — The California seed firm closed its oversubscribed $32.2M debut fund to back AI-native startups

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