WHAT’S INSIDE

Top Signals: Mag 7 earnings week is $600B AI capex report card, Fed chair transition puts Fed independence on line, & Iran-war volatility oil/inflation risk on

Big Movers: Google unveils TPU 8t/8i (3x training, 80% $/perf), Amazon doubles down on Anthropic & Nvidia/Adobe/WPP push AI agents into marketing ops

Open Deals: Bezos’ Project Prometheus ($10B @ $38B) + Cursor seeks $2B @ $50B+, Polymarket targets $400M @ $15B, & DeepSeek/Cognition raise talks

Mega Rounds: Vast Data $1B @ $30B, Blue Energy $380M (grid-scale nuclear), Reliable Robotics $160M, & Omni $120M @ $1.B AI infra + energy + autonomy

Exit Watching: SpaceX preempts/absorbs Cursor in a $60B deal, Sierra consolidates with Fragment, & Deutsche Telekom/T‑Mobile merger talks $300B-scale telco shift

The Funding Buzz: Lockheed boosts venture firepower to $1B, Blockchain Capital raises $700M, Mighty Capital closes $91M, & the AI + defense + energy pipeline

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⚠️ TOP SIGNAL ALERT

The Key Signals We are watching this Monday that will shape the week ahead:

TOP SIGNALS ALERT

🚨Mag 7 Earnings Blitz Amid War Uncertainty

Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon/Meta report Wednesday, Apple Thursday in busiest earnings week as companies spent combined $600B+ on AI capex this year. Tesla already reported, only Nvidia remains. Azure growth rate most watched after Q4's 39% slowdown from capacity constraints, Microsoft Copilot subscriptions highly anticipated after team revamp. Meta expected strongest growth since late 2021, Alphabet accelerating but less dramatically.

Why It Matters: This is the real AI investment report card. $600B capex needs to show returns or questions cascade. Microsoft Azure capacity-constrained last quarter means if growth doesn't reaccelerate, the entire AI infrastructure thesis wobbles. Copilot subscriptions are the test: can Microsoft monetize AI in enterprise software or is spending outpacing revenue? Meta's expected 31% revenue growth vs Alphabet's 18.5% shows who's winning AI-powered advertising. Iran war already hit Mag 7 for $850B loss in late March—if earnings disappoint too, $5.7T retirement funds trapped in indexes get crushed. Energy earnings (Exxon/Chevron/BP) earlier in week show Iran impact on costs.

🚨 Fed Chair Transition as Powell's Term Ends May 15

Senator Thom Tillis dropping opposition to Kevin Warsh after DOJ ended Powell investigation, clearing path for Senate Banking Committee Wednesday vote. Powell's term ends May 15, unclear if he stays on board through Jan 2028. Warsh pledged independence at hearing but Trump said he'd be "disappointed" if Warsh doesn't immediately cut rates. Wednesday FOMC meeting expected to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for third straight meeting despite Trump demands.

Why It Matters: Fed independence is ending in real time. Tillis dropped opposition after DOJ closed what he called "vindictive prosecution"— US Attorney Jeanine Pirro, longtime Trump ally, ran investigation as "weapon to threaten Fed independence." Warsh says he's independent but Trump openly expects rate cuts. Wednesday meeting is Powell's second-to-last as chair—if he leaves board entirely when term ends May 15, Trump fills another seat, cementing control. Markets betting 99.5% rates stay unchanged Wednesday, but Warsh confirmation means future cuts come from Trump loyalist. Thursday PCE inflation data shows if Iran war hitting prices—Fed can't cut if inflation reaccelerates, trapping them between Trump pressure and mandate.

Big Movers

Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week

Google Cloud — Announced eighth-gen TPUs featuring TPU 8t training/TPU 8i inference promising 3x faster training/80% better performance per dollar.

Thinking Machines Lab — Google signed a multi-billion cloud deal with Mira Murati-founded AI startup providing AI infrastructure access, with Nvidia GPUs.

NVIDIA/Adobe/WPP — Partnered to integrate autonomous AI agents into marketing workflows, addressing production bottlenecks for personalized marketing.

Amazon/Anthropic — Amazon investing up to $25B in Anthropic as AI infrastructure partnership, Anthropic pledges $100B+ on AWS/Trainium chips.

Blue Origin — Successfully reused New Glenn rocket marking milestone vs SpaceX, despite satellite deployment issue reuse vital for NASA moon missions and satellites.

Superior Plus' Certarus — Compressed natural gas leader secured $300M contract for 2.5-year supply to data center supporting 135MW power by mid-2027.

Redwire — Aerospace/defense tech specialist secured $20M+ US defense orders for Stalker UAVs leading to 11.3% 7-day gain/14.5% YTD analysts see value increase.

OPEN DEALS

Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week

Open Deal: The Wyoming Exchange Building the "New York Stock Exchange for Nonprofits." Watch an investor talk by co-founders on WYDE’s mission & news.

Project Prometheus — Bezos co-founded AI startup raising $10B at $38B for physical AI in manufacturing/aerospace/semiconductors, + a $100B fund.

Cursor — AI-powered code editor startup in talks for $2B raise at $50B+ valuation, embedding large language models into programming enhancing dev interfaces.

Polymarket — Prediction market platform seeking $400M raise at $15B valuation with potential $1B funding, amid regulatory scrutiny attracting strategic investors.

DeepSeek — Chinese AI lab negotiating first external funding at $20B+ valuation with Tencent/Alibaba as potential investors for $300M raise.

Cognition AI Inc. — Creator of autonomous coding assistant Devin in talks to raise hundreds of millions doubling valuation to $25B, serves Dell/Cisco.

CuspAI — British AI startup is negotiating $200M round potentially raising valuation above $1B, "search engine for material world" using AI to expedite discovery.

Human Intelligence — Stanford professor James Zou is raising $100M at $1B valuation to launch AI startup focused on advancing physiology research with AI.

IN THE MONEY

Companies that raised money in the past week and why they matter

Massive Deals

Project Prometheus — Bezos/Vik Bajaj AI lab raised $10B at $38B valuation backed by JPMorgan/BlackRock/DST, focusing AI tools for product design.

Vast Data — AI-focused data-infrastructure company raised $1B Series F at $30B valuation backed by Nvidia/Drive/Access Industries/Fidelity/NEA reports $4B+ cumulative bookings/$500M ARR.

Cognition AI — AI startup pursuing funding to double valuation to $25B following $400M raise at $10.2B, AI coding assistant Devin serves Dell/Cisco.

Blue Energy — Texas nuclear energy company raised $380M for first 1.5 GW project, prefabricating components in shipyards reducing construction time/costs.

Reliable Robotics — CA automation company raised $160M to enhance FAA-certifiable Reliable Autonomy System for fully automated aircraft led by Nimble.

Pudu Robotics — Chinese robotics company raised nearly $150M pushing valuation above $1.5B/$300M total funding, accelerating embodied AI development.

Omni — AI analytics platform raised $120M Series C at $1.5B valuation boasting 4x YoY revenue growth, semantic data model integrating major data warehouses.

Tortugas Neuroscience — Neurology-focused biotech secured $106M Seed/Series A led by Cure Ventures/The Column Group/AN Venture, targets CNS.

Large Deals

AcuityMD — MedTech commercial intelligence platform raised $80M Series C valuing at $955M led by StepStone with Redpoint/Benchmark/ICONIQ/Atreides.

Orkes — SF AI orchestration platform company raised $60M to scale enterprise agent deployments led by Battery Ventures/Icon Ventures with SignalFire/Bain.

Courier Health — AI-driven biopharma platform raised $50M Series B led by Oak HC/FT to enhance patient experience integrating data/automating tasks.

Serif Biomedicines — Flagship Pioneering launched biotech company with $50M to develop "modified DNA" medicines integrating gene-therapy/mRNA/siRNA.

Tava Health — US full-stack behavioral health platform raised $40M Series C led by Centana expanding with new AI-powered products enhancing mental-health.

NeoCognition — Ohio AI research lab raised $40M seed led by Cambium Capital/Walden Catalyst .with Vista Equity support. Self-learning AI agents for enterprise SaaS.

ComfyUI — NY AI-driven creative workflows platform secured $30M at $500M valuation led by Craft with 4M+ users, plans to enhance o-s ecosystem.

Smaller Deals

Monk — NY AI-native accounts receivable platform raised $25M Series A led by Footwork/Acrew Capital with BTV, automating contract-to-cash lifecycle for B2B businesses.

Humble — Autonomous electric haulers company emerged from stealth securing $24M to advance technology bringing autonomous solutions to freight industry.

Collov Labs — Visual-AI company raised $23M Series A backed by Brightway Future Capital/Matrix Partners expanding research lab, serving 1M+ users/300 companies.

Shade — NY AI-powered cloud storage startup raised $14M enhancing platform for creative teams, features include NL search/video matching/facial recognition.

Coral — NY startup raised $12.5M seed led by Lightspeed/Z47 to automate admin workflows in US specialty healthcare, platform uses AI processing documents.

BetHog — AI-powered live dealer platform raised $10M Series A led by Will Ventures/RockawayX, totaling $16M funding expanding customizable live casino experiences on revenue-share model.

Thoughtly — NY AI-driven omnichannel platform startup raised $5.5M seed, for CRMs with voice/SMS/email targeting education, insurance, mortgage, real estate.

Cloneable — US AI platform startup raised $4.6M seed led by Congruent Ventures automating industrial workflows across energy/construction sectors.

EXIT WATCHING

Mergers & Acquisitions and IPOs

Deutsche Telekom/T-Mobile — Early talks for transatlantic merger forming world's largest telecom near $300B valuation serving 200M+ customers, combining DTs 53% stake in T-Mobile US.

Cursor — SpaceX preempted a $2B funding round by acquiring the AI-coding startup for $60B including $10B collaboration payment. Enhances xAI division using Colossus.

Sierra — $4.5B AI customer-service startup led by Bret Taylor acquired Fragment, French Y-Combinator-backed startup bringing multilingual conversational AI tech/Paris engineering team.

IPO Watch

Open or upcoming IPOs to watch:

X-energy — Nuclear startup raised $1B IPO selling 44.3M shares at $23 each trading Nasdaq XE, builds 80-MW modular reactors with Texas plant/5 GW Amazon contracts by 2039.

Morningstar — Investment research firm plans to update CRSP Market Indexes with liquidity screen to quickly include massive IPOs like SpaceX at $1.75T valuation plus Anthropic/OpenAI.

Revolut — UK fintech targeting $200B valuation for 2028 IPO up from $75B private valuation 2025, £1.7B pre-tax profit 2025, secured full UK banking license expanding globally.

THE FUNDING BUZZ

VC & PE Activity To Watch

[Open Fund] Eclipse — Launched a $1.3B fund for "physical AI" startups. Includes $591M early-stage incubation for transportation/energy/defense, emphasizing portfolio collaboration merging AI/robotics/hardware.

Lockheed Martin — US corporate firm boosts venture fund to $1B investing in defense tech, increased funding supporting aerospace/cybersecurity/AI innovations.

Blockchain Capital — Raised $700M for new crypto funds expanding blockchain investment, major player deploying capital in key projects signaling rapid growth.

Trinity Capital — VC firm reported $395M new commitments/$306M funded investments Q1 2026.

Japanet — Expands vc fund to $200M with Pegasus Tech Ventures targeting generative AI/robotics/space tech, global collabs with Asian/NA firms.

Mighty Capital — SF VC firm closed $91M Fund III tripling previous size, product-led investing approach focusing early-stage B2B tech, six IPOs/$1B+ created value.

AI Health Fund — Treehub residency vc arm raising $10M fund providing $50K-$150K to academic-origin startups, backed 12 companies, aims to support 60+ startups.

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