IPO Summer: Anthropic Files Ahead of OpenAI

+ SpaceX IPO, OpenAI IPO, & New Market Highs

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The Tech Buzz
June 02, 2026

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WHAT’S INSIDE:

Feature: IPO Summer: Anthropic Files Ahead of OpenAI

Top Tech News: Dow/S&P/Nasdaq rally to new high; Zandi warns $125 oil = recession; EU tightens cloud tenders

Company Watch: Base Power eyes $12B; Anthropic IPO filing; Cognition $25B; Motorola buys D‑Fend

Buzzy Tools: Nvidia RTX Spark AI PCs; unified Copilot app; Codex “computer use” on Windows; MiniMax M3

Buzzy Tech: AI PCs with NPUs; US graphite anode plant; fusion modeling gains; FTC probes fertilizer pricing

Crypto: Trump backs “Clarity Act”; ETH $4K ’26/$40K ’30 call; Polymarket insider case; Samsung in Dunamu

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Top Technology News

Stocks Break Records — Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rose as investors weighed US-Iran peace talks, Nvidia new chip with shares up 6%+ as oil dipped ahead of non-farm payrolls report.

Recession Oil Risk — Mark Zandi warns without Iran peace deal soaring oil could trigger US recession with gas exceeding $5/gallon, crude over $125 stressing low strategic reserves.

Tech Curbs — China unveils strict rules on overseas deals tightening control over technology, data, national security effective July 1 allowing unwinding foreign investments, penalizing firms from countries limiting Chinese investment.

Sanders AI Fund — Senator Bernie Sanders proposes "American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund" giving US government 50% stake in major AI firms funded by one-time stock tax distributing AI wealth to Americans.

EU Cloud Rules — EU proposes strict criteria limiting Amazon, Microsoft, Google in state tenders boosting EU-based tech sovereignty with central purchasing body, fast-track approvals.

IPO Summer: Anthropic Files Ahead of OpenAI

Tech Buzz Editorial Feature

Anthropic filed for an IPO, beating out OpenAI and joining SpaceX in the race to go public.The three companies have a combined paper value north of $4T. The stock market is left trying to figure out what to do with all of them at once as it hit yet another all-time high led by Nvidia.

Anthropic filed confidential IPO paperwork Monday, jumping ahead of OpenAI with a private valuation already sitting at $965B. And OpenAI is working with bankers on its own filing, currently valued at $852B. Wedbush's Dan Ives called it a race to reach public markets. It's now a sprint with $4T at stake.SpaceX goes public on Nasdaq June 12 under ticker SPCX, targeting a valuation of $1.75T after trimming $200B off an earlier $2T ask, a rare act of pricing discipline from Elon Musk. 

The timing matters. The S&P 500 closed above 7,600 Monday. Nvidia jumped 6% on new chip announcements at Computex Taipei. Conditions for a mega-IPO window are arguably as good as they get.

Retirement Fund Investing Rules Changed (the reason is SpaceX)

After the dot-com crash, index providers built guardrails specifically to keep loss-making companies out of retirement funds. You had to be publicly traded for 12 months and profitable for four consecutive quarters to get into the S&P 500. Tesla spent a decade waiting.

Then SpaceX filed at $1.75T and the guardrails came down, quietly.

CRSP, the index behind Vanguard's $607B VTI Total Stock Market fund, introduced a new eligibility test based on absolute market cap rather than public float percentage. SpaceX clears it. FTSE Russell confirmed a Fast Entry mechanism that allows index inclusion just five trading days after listing. The Nasdaq-100 cut its waiting window to 15 trading days.

The practical result: if you hold a plain total-market index fund in your 401(k), you may own SpaceX before most people have even heard the IPO closed. SpaceX posted $18.7B in 2025 revenue against a $4.9B net loss. The indexes are buying it anyway.

The S&P 500 is moving slower and hasn't confirmed anything. Likely inclusion there is late 2026 or early 2027. But the passive investing principle that was supposed to protect ordinary savers from speculative concentration has, for the biggest names, effectively been repealed.

The Profitability Question

Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI has ever posted a GAAP profit. Under the rules that governed index inclusion for two decades, that would lock both companies out of retirement funds for years after listing. But the S&P 500 profitability waiver consultation closed May 28 and a decision was expected June 8. If the waiver passes at a market cap threshold both companies clear, they could follow SpaceX straight into your 401(k) without a single profitable quarter between them. Three of the most consequential AI companies in history, all potentially index-eligible while losing billions annually. The dot-com guardrails are a thing of the past.

The SpaceX S-1 Filing

Starlink is the business that works. It generated $11.4B in revenue in 2025, 61% of total, with $4.4B in operating income. The xAI segment, absorbed in a February 2026 merger that brought Grok and X into the company, posted $6.36B in operating losses. So SpaceX is profitable if you squint past the AI division Musk grafted on.

Musk controls voting through Class B shares with 10 votes each. He can only be removed as CEO by a vote of those same Class B holders he controls. The amended filing warns investors the company may issue significant equity in future transactions. Merger speculation with Tesla (market cap roughly $1.4T) has reached the point where prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of a deal before May 2027 above 50%. A combined entity approaches $3.4T in implied value, though analyst Gary Black at The Future Fund thinks a merged group would actually trade closer to $2.25T than the sum of its parts.

Why Anthropic Filed Now

Anthropic's revenue run rate hit $47B in early May, up from $30B in April, and just $9B last year. Claude Code drove most of that. Its enterprise focus means its users are predominantly on work accounts rather than personal ones, which matters a lot given that Florida's AG sued OpenAI Monday over ChatGPT's alleged role in a campus shooting. Anthropic has largely avoided that category of lawsuit.

CEO Dario Amodei withheld the Claude Mythos Preview model earlier this year because it was too good at hacking, unprompted. That cost Anthropic real commercial velocity. The IPO prospectus, when it appears, will test whether public markets will pay a premium for that kind of restraint or simply price it as missed revenue.

The Takeaway

The most interesting signal is structural. Three loss-making AI companies are about to enter public markets simultaneously, index rules have been rewritten to accommodate them, and the S&P 500 may be about to drop its last remaining profitability standard. The market is betting that AI revenue growth at this scale eventually justifies the losses, the same bet it made on Amazon for years, and on Tesla for a decade.

Whether that bet pays off depends almost entirely on which of these companies can convert model capability into durable enterprise revenue before the compute bills catch up with them. Anthropic at $47B run rate is moving fastest on that metric right now. SpaceX's Starlink at $11.4B in revenue with positive operating income is the only business in this entire group already proving the model works at scale. Everything else is a very expensive, very public science experiment. The indexes just decided everyone gets to run it together.

Companies To Watch

Latest deals and trending companies

Open Deal

Base Power $1B — Austin home-battery provider seeking funding at $12B with Ribbit Capital expected to lead as company expands backup power in off-grid areas.

Big Movers

Anthropic IPO — Files to go public after $65B Series H valuing at $965B reporting $47B ARR in May despite security, political challenges.

Mach — Defense-tech startup focused on autonomous vehicles closed $300M round to enhance manufacturing, meet rising Pentagon demand amid record defense-tech investment.

Cognition $25B — Creator of Devin AI software engineer raised over $1B at pre-money valuation backed by Lux, General Catalyst, 8VC reporting $492M ARR with Mercedes-Benz, NASA as clients.

Motorola $1.5B — Acquires Israeli startup D-Fend Solutions integrating radio-wave drone-hijacking tech expected Q4 2026 following $4.4B Silvus purchase targeting rising rogue-drone defense demand with $185M projected 2026 revenue.

Sierra $200M ARR — Achieved $200M ARR doubling from $100M in just two quarters reflecting rapid growth momentum.

Buzzy Tools & Tech

The Latest Trending Tools & Cutting Edge Technology Developments

Buzzy Tools

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Copilot Unified — Microsoft merges GitHub tools, AI workflows, Scout agent in one app.

Codex Windows — Operates PC apps via AI commands, integrations on Windows.

MiniMax M3 — Open-weight model with 1M token context for desktop operation.

TrueFoundry — Deploys, governs 250+ LLMs across cloud platforms.

Buzzy Technology

Buzzy Tech Discoveries and Breakthroughs Trending Today

AI PCs — Integrated neural units boost AI speed, privacy on laptops, desktops.

Graphite One — Plans 10K-ton anode production boosting US battery supply.

Fusion Durability — White-light interferometry advances fusion models.

FTC Fertilizer Probe — Investigates price-fixing amid rising US fertilizer costs.

Cryptocurrency News

The Latest News in Crypto & Blockchain

Trump Digital Push — Trump plans "future-proof" digital asset market structure criticizing ex-SEC chair Gensler for hindering innovation as Clarity Act clears Senate Banking needing more Democratic backing.

ETH to $40K — Standard Chartered likens Ethereum to post dot-com Amazon predicting ETH hitting $4K by 2026, $40K by 2030 on stablecoin growth, tokenized assets, regulatory clarity.

Google Polymarket Insider — Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo faces federal charges for using confidential data to profit $1.2M on Polymarket risking 20 years prison with CFTC pursuing civil penalties.

Samsung Crypto — Samsung Securities, Card, SDS acquire 4% stake in Dunamu for $408M while Hana Bank invests $670M for 6.55% ahead of South Korean crypto regulation.

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